About this course
Overview
Judgement degrades under time pressure in fairly predictable ways. This covers the biases that cause it and the structured techniques that improve a decision when the information is never going to arrive in full.
Management & Leadership
Decision-Making Under Uncertainty
Where judgement goes wrong under pressure, and the structured techniques that improve a decision when the information is never going to be complete.
What you will be able to do
Learning outcomes
- Spot bias in their own and others' reasoning
- Use a structured method for complex choices
- Weigh options against explicit criteria
- Communicate the basis for a decision clearly
- Make defensible calls with incomplete information
What the course sets out to do
Course objectives
- Recognise common cognitive biases in decisions
- Apply structured decision-making techniques
- Frame decisions and clarify the real question
- Reason about probability and expected value
- Improve decisions made under time pressure
Course content
Modules
01
How judgement fails
The heuristics and biases that systematically distort decisions.
02
Framing the decision
Defining the problem, objectives, and options before choosing.
03
Structured decision techniques
Criteria-based methods for comparing and selecting options.
04
Probability and risk
Basic probabilistic thinking and expected-value reasoning.
05
Deciding under pressure
Fast, good-enough decisions when time and data are limited.
06
Group decisions
Covers how to reduce groupthink and improve collective judgement.
Who it is for
Target audience
Managers, analysts, and operational leaders who make consequential decisions with incomplete or uncertain information.
Before you start
Prerequisites
Management or professional decision-making responsibility.
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