How to forecast revenue, cost a proposed tax change before it is enacted, and show decision-makers what a rate or threshold move will really do.
A rate change looks simple until someone asks what it will actually raise. The work here is costing policy before it is enacted: building revenue forecasts, modelling how taxpayers respond to a threshold or rate move, and presenting the result so a decision-maker can weigh it against the alternatives.
The components of the tax base and how each responds to policy.
Applies trend, elasticity, and micro-simulation approaches to revenue estimation.
Tests rate, threshold, and exemption changes against the revenue baseline.
Incorporates taxpayer response and compliance effects into estimates.
Assesses how reforms affect different taxpayer and income groups.
Frames analysis into clear options and recommendations for policymakers.
Tax policy analysts, economists, and revenue forecasting officers in ministries of finance and revenue authorities.
Comfort with spreadsheets and a basic grasp of tax structure. Economics training helps but is not assumed.
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